While that scenario should, of course, be studied, the concern about the feasibility of a fait accompli in the form of a major invasion still stands. Some analysts have argued that these seizures are much more likely to be small in size, limited to one or two towns. This creates a dilemma for NATO: launch a costly counter-attack and risk heavy casualties and possibly a nuclear crisis or accept a Russian fait accompli and undermine faith in the credibility of the alliance. Most of these wargames, such as RAND’s Baltic study, focus on fait accompli, an attack by the Russian government aimed at seizing terrain - then quickly digging in. Johnson projected that the Russian army would overrun the Baltic states in three days. In a 2016 War on the Rocks article, David A. Moscow might want to undermine security in the Baltic states or Poland, for instance, but could the Russian government successfully carry out a large-scale invasion of those countries? If recent wargames are any indication, then the answer is a resounding yes - and it could do so pretty easily. Perhaps even more concerning would be a Russian attack against a NATO member itself. The possibility of Russian aggression against Ukraine would have huge consequences for European security. intelligence officials are reportedly warning NATO allies that a Russian invasion of large parts of Ukraine can’t be ruled out.
CIA Director Bill Burns flew to Moscow to try to avert a crisis, while U.S. Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has clearly gotten the attention of policymakers from Kiev to Washington, D.C. Editor’s note: Don’t miss our comprehensive guide to Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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